MIAMI, Florida – NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida issued a Tropical Weather Outlook at 2 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Saturday, October 3, 2020, due to the presence of Invest 92L 2020 that will likely form into a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico.

If Invest 92L becomes a tropical storm or hurricane, the next name on the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Greek Alphabet Names List is Delta.

Invest 92L 2020 Projected Path

Invest 92L is a tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea (marked with an orange “X”).

Shower and thunderstorm activity has become more consolidated since yesterday near the tropical wave.

NHC forecasters say that environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea and then into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Invest 92L has a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days and a 30% chance within the next 48 hours.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and interests on those islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.

Invest 92L 2020 Computer Models

Invest 92L 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models
Invest 92L 2020 Computer Models, Spaghetti Models

Spaghetti models are in general agreement that Invest 92L will move in a west-northwesterly direction across the Caribbean, travel between the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba, and then enter the Gulf of Mexico.

NOAA historical hurricane data. Peak season and storm frequency.

September 10 was the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season where tropical cyclone activity significantly increases. But hurricane season still remains at an increased level of activity through the first half of October, according to NOAA and the National Weather Service’s historical data.

October Hurricanes Atlantic Hurricane Season Historical

NOAA and Colorado State University forecast an “extremely active” 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season which runs from June 1 through November 30.

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