The latest US GDP and initial jobless claims data are slightly lower than expected, but the overall performance is still strong. The US Department of Commerce announced that GDP grew at an annual rate of 6.4% in the first quarter, the largest increase in the first quarter since 1984. According to the data released by the US Department of Commerce, the initial annualized quarterly growth rate of US GDP in the first quarter was 6.4%, lower than the expected growth rate of 6.9% and the previous growth rate of 4.3%. CNBC said that economic activity in the United States has been booming since the beginning of this year, because extensive vaccination and government spending have helped the United States almost return to the economic level before the outbreak. The GDP growth rate of the United States in the first quarter was 6.4%, which was the second fastest since the third quarter of 2003. In the third quarter of last year, the economy reopened and reached its best. The latest data reflect that the US economy has made significant progress since the 2020 blockade. In the second quarter of 2020, more than 22 million U.S. workers lost their jobs and gross domestic product fell by an unprecedented 31.4%. However, the Bureau of economic research has yet to announce that the recession is over, as total dollar GDP has not yet exceeded its previous peak. Although about 14 million people have returned to work since the economy reopened, the Federal Reserve estimates that there are 8.4 million fewer jobs than before. The unemployment rate has fallen to 6% from its peak of 14.7% during the epidemic, but it is still far higher than the 3.5% recorded in February 2020.
In addition, Didier reynders, the EU justice commissioner, said that if the EU fails to establish a sharable vaccine certification system, EU countries will be forced to deal with countless disjointed systems. The European Union is pushing for shared digital vaccine passes to allow tourists to travel freely this summer, but discussions on cost, data and privacy issues, as well as new system technologies and medical care have not yet been completed. “If we can agree politically, then the technical solutions will come out soon, otherwise we will face the risk of the whole Europe splitting up and there may be many incompatible authentication systems,” Reinders said “We will run the risk that other Member States will not be able to read and verify all kinds of documents, we will run the risk that forged documents will be spread, accompanied by the spread of the virus and the distrust of the people,” he told the European Parliament Southern EU countries that rely on tourism, such as Spain and Italy, are eager to launch this new certification system as soon as possible to help those industries damaged by the epidemic. However, they must overcome the northern EU countries that are negative about this issue and the complex EU decision-making process. At present, as there is no established central system of the European Union, countries such as Estonia, Lithuania, Greece, Spain, Germany and France are introducing their own solutions to record vaccination.
The data that need to be paid attention to today include China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI in April, the initial value of France’s GDP in the first quarter, the initial value of Germany’s GDP after quarterly adjustment in the first quarter, the initial value of euro zone’s CPI without quarterly adjustment in April, the quarterly rate of euro zone’s GDP after quarterly adjustment in the first quarter, the unemployment rate of euro zone in March, the annual rate of us PCE price index in March, the monthly rate of Canada’s GDP after quarterly adjustment in February, the monthly rate of us personal expenditure in March U.S. PMI of Chicago in April and U.S. consumer confidence index of University of Michigan in April.
Yesterday, the US dollar index was concussion consolidation, the daily line closed up slightly, and the spot exchange price was around 90.60. In addition to short covering constituting a certain support for the exchange rate, the GDP data released by the United States during the period reached the largest growth rate in the first quarter since 1984, which is the main reason to support the rebound of the US dollar index. In addition, the rebound in US bond yields also provided strong support for gold. However, the dovish resolution recently released by the Federal Reserve limited the rebound space of the exchange rate. Focus on the pressure around 91.00 today, and the support below is around 90.20.
EUR / USD
The euro fell in shock yesterday, closing slightly lower on the daily line, with spot exchange trading near 1.2120. In addition to profit taking, the dollar index rebounded from the 9-week low supported by the rebound in US bond yields and good GDP data, which is the main reason for the weakening of the euro. However, the euro zone’s overall good economic data and the US Federal Reserve’s recently announced dovish resolution limited the exchange rate’s callback space. Focus on the pressure around 1.2200 today, and the support below is around 1.2050.
GBP / USD
Sterling yesterday shock consolidation, the daily closed down slightly, spot price trading at around 1.3950. In addition to profit taking on the exchange rate constitutes a certain pressure, the dollar index rebound is also an important factor to pressure the pound down. In addition, investors’ worries about next week’s Scottish election also put some pressure on the exchange rate. However, the progress of vaccination in the UK and the dovish decision announced by the Federal Reserve limited the falling space of the exchange rate. Focus on the pressure around 1.4050 today, and the lower support is around 1.3850.